This is the third in a series of state by state voter registration diaries that I have decided to do rather than the omnibus ones I had done in months past (the states I did diaries for before this one were for the states of Nevada and North Carolina).
By devoting a diary to a single state at a time, I hope that I can not only make the reading of the raw numbers more simple but more importantly, that the information is more in depth and more informative by being able to provide some commentary regarding those numbers for that state. In that vein I will try to provide more of a long term history of the voter registration numbers for each of the states, both over the past year and just as importantly in comparison to the final numbers from the 2004 election with accompanying raw vote totals from the election results in those states that year.
That having been said onto the numbers for today's state Iowa.
Iowa
Dems Reps Ind
1/3/08 606,209 576,231 742,124
5/1/08 660,693 577,619 685,693
6/2/08 664,031 577,914 685,693
7/1/08 673,833 583,614 675,860
8/1/08 675,510 583,746 679,202
9/2/08 678,742 584,487 684,648
10/1/08 685,818 586,998 693,447
Some interesting facts, in January, 2008, registered Democrats comprised 31.4% of the registered electorate in Iowa and Republicans comprised 29.9% of the registered electorate, for a measly difference of only +1.5% for the Dems (by the way Indies made up 38.56%). Now as of October, 2008, Democrats comprise 34.86% of the registered electorate while Republicans share has inched down to 29.84%, for a difference now of +5.02% for the Dems (Indies share of the electorate decreased by a whopping 3.31% to now just 35.25% of the electorate)! In large measure the only reason Republicans share of the electorate has not gone down further is not because of people coming to sign up as Republicans but because of the dramatic decrease in the share of the electorate Indies now have in Iowa (more on what that may mean below).
So where was Iowa in 2004? In short, the state was pretty evenly divided with a slight edge to Republicans. On election day November, 2004, there were 610,336 registered Republicans, 605,934 registered Democrats, and 748,393 registered Indies. Thus, Democrats accounted for 30.8% of the registered electorate, Republicans 31%, and Indies 38%. This, however, should be compared to what the numbers were for the parties at the beginning of 2004. In January, 2004, Democrats were well behind Republicans in terms of voter registration. There were 584,513 registered Republicans, 533,107 registered Democrats, and 703,106 registered Indies in January, 2004; or as a percentage of the electorate Republicans made up 32.1%, Democrats 29.2%, and Indies 38.6%. Through voter registration efforts, however, Democrats were nearly able to wipe away the advantage Republicans had in Iowa at the beginning of the year.
Bush beat Kerry in Iowa by roughly 10,000 votes or by a percentage of 50% to 49%. Exit polls (which I'm not entirely convinced were that accurate) showed that among those showing up at the polls that day, 36% were Republicans, 34% Democrats, and 30% Indies. In other words, both Republicans and Democrats were able to perform slightly better than their share of the registered electorate, with a slightly better overperformance by Republicans. Indies, on the other hand, woefully underpeformed, losing roughly 8% of their actual share of the registered electorate come election day.
So where does this put Iowa today? I think that the trend numbers in voter registration, especially those over the past 9 months, indicate a much stronger presence of Democrats at the polls this year than as compared to 2004. Democrats have already surpassed the share of the registered electorate they had in 2004 and even the share they had of people who voted on election day. Republicans on the other hand (and Indies to a larger extent) are right now at well below their share of the registered electorate from 2004. Right now I'd say that Iowa looks very good for Democrats this year.
What has happened with Indies registration share this year does, however, give me some concern. The concern being that all that has pushed Democrats numbers higher in Iowa this year is not new voters joining the party, but simply Democratic-leaning Indies switching their party affiliation to Democrat. Look at the almost lockstep nature in which Indies registration numbers declined to the increase in Democrats numbers during the same time frame. Specifically, the large jump in numbers for Democrats occurred between January and May of this year, the same time that Indies experienced their largest drop in registration numbers. The reason this is a concern is that it suggest that perhaps the increase in Democrats numbers are more mirage than reality. If all the Dems have done is substitute what they got as a share of the Indie vote with now true blue Democrats then the increase in voter registration nets the party very little. Indeed, Kerry won the Indies vote in Iowa by eight points (53% to 45%), roughly the same margin from the underperformance of Indies that year as a share of the registered electorate. Moreover, after the dramatic increase in Dems registration numbers (and nearly equal decrease in Indies), Democrats have been able to continue to attract more voters. But, the magnitude of that increase in the month to month numbers after May, 2008, is nearly equal to the continued decline in numbers being experienced by Indies. By the same token, the uptick in perhaps Democratic-leaning Indies switching to the Dems may suggest that the Republican-leaning Indies are not that keen on voting at all this year. Again Indies performance on election day was minus 8%, the same difference by which Kerry won the Indies vote in Iowa. That tells me that even in 2004 alot of Republican-leaning Indies just did not show up to vote for Bush. I cannot imagine these same no-showers coming to vote this year.