This is the third in a series of diaries laying out the raw voter registration numbers for a number of states. Unlike the previous diaries, I will try in this one to make the reading of the raw numbers more simple (and hopefully more readable) and more informative by focusing a diary a day on a particular state and then provide some brief comments regarding those numbers for that state. In that same vein I will try to provide more of a long term history of the voter registration numbers for each of the states, both over the past year and just as importantly in comparison to the final numbers from the 2004 election with accompanying raw vote totals from the election results in those states that year. Before going into the numbers I'd like to point out to anyone who has the time to read an interesting story the New York Times had on voter registration and its trend for the past four years.
That having been said onto the numbers for today's state North Carolina.
North Carolina:
Dems Reps Ind
1/05/08 2,511,446 1,919,575 1,173,399
5/03/08 2,625,522 1,933,434 1,242,924
6/07/08 2,634,241 1,933,069 1,245,209
7/05/08 2,640,850 1,934,505 1,253,102
8/02/08 2,669,616 1,937,735 1,282,698
9/06/08 2,688,252 1,941,247 1,300,848
9/12/08 2,695,336 1,944,169 1,306,550
9/20/08 2,705,614 1,948,087 1,313,400
9/27/08 2,722,815 1,955,114 1,324,875
10/4/08 2,739,892 1,961,154 1,334,354
10/11/08 2,758,161 1,967,441 1,344,688
10/18/08 2,809,860 1,982,321 1,370,717
Some interesting facts, in January, 2008, there were 1,128,082 registered African-Americans in North Carolina, comprising 20.1% of the registered electorate. As of October 18, 2008, there are 1,313,029 registered African-Americans (that's right a pick up of almost 185,000 in ten months) in North Carolina, now comprising 21.33% of the registered electorate. Similarly, in January, 2008, registered Democrats comprised 44.8% of the registered electorate in North Carolina and Republicans comprised 34.2% of the registered electorate, for a difference of +10.6% (by the way Indies made up 20.9%). Now as of October 18, 2008, Democrats comprise 45.57% of the registered electorate while Republicans share has dwindled to 32.15%, for a difference now of 13.42% (again Indies share increased to 22.23%).
So where was North Carolina in 2004? On election day November, 2004, there were 2,582,462 registered Democrats, 1,903,119 registered Republicans, and 1,021,648 registered Indies. Furthermore, registered African-Americans totaled 1,112,959, comprising 20.1% of the registered electorate. Bush beat Kerry in North Carolina by 435,317 votes. Exit polls showed that among those showing up at the polls, 40% were Republicans, 39% Democrats, and 21% Indies; and furthermore that 26% of voters that day were African-Americans. The exit polls results for North Carolina in 2004 are highly questionable as the projected result from the exit poll was a narrow Bush win -- 52% to 48%. Instead it was a rout with Bush getting 56% and Kerry 43%. Thus, it may be safe to assume that Republican share of the voters that day was much higher and that the Democratic share as well as the African-American share that day was much lower.
So where does this put North Carolina today? I think that the trend numbers in voter registration, especially over the past 10 months, indicate a much stronger presence of Democrats and Independents at the polls this year as compared to 2004. Democrats are approaching the share of the electorate they had in 2004 (which was over 46%) and Republicans are well below their share of the electorate from 2004 (which was 34.5%). Right now I'd say that North Carolina is going to be a nail biter come November. Whether Senator Obama can win the state will turn in large measure on turnout amongst Democrats in general and African-Americans in particular. Indeed, PPP has put out a nice chart showing election projections for North Carolina pegged solely to the share of the voting electorate African-Americans will comprise on election day.
African-American % Electorate McCain Obama
18 48 43
19 47 44
20 47 44
21 46 45
22 46 45
23 45 46
At this point anyway it looks like 23% could be the North Carolina tipping point.
Interestingly, the African-American share of the registered electorate in North Carolina now over 21%, so if African Americans only slightly overperform their share of the registered electorate Obama can win.
If you like to read more about Obama's chances in North Carolina, read this story by the New York Times