I'm sure this has been diaried already but PPP came out with a poll yesterday for South Carolina showing McCain leading Obama by 6 points: 45 to 39.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
That, however, is not the interesting part as the cross-tabs reveal something much more interesting.
According to PPPs poll 29% of the sample were African Americans. Of that group 77% supported Senator Obama, 10% supported Sen. McCain, and 6% supported Barr. In other words, PPPs poll shows fully 16% of South Carolina African Americans supporting someone other than Senator Obama. As you all are probably aware from reading Quin polls over the past month that have larger African American subsamples (and therefore lower margins of error) African Americans generally give Senator Obama 90 to 95% of their vote. I see no reason for South Carolina to be any different. Thus if we adjusted PPPs numbers to reflect Senator Obama receiving anywhere between 90% to 95% of the African American vote in South Carolina then his numbers in the PPP poll would be adjusted upward anywhere between roughly 3% to 5%. Moreover, toward the higher end of the share of the vote McCain's numbers would have to be reduced accordingly, not by much (roughly 1%), but the small shift is significant. In the end, PPPs South Carolina poll (adjusted for a growing consensus on Obama's share of the African American vote) would have McCain either up 45 to 42, or the two candidates tied 44 to 44.