There has been a lot of talk, most notably from Clinton supporters, that the DNC Rules Committee meeting on May 31st will be crucial in deciding whose the nominee. But according to my calculations the question of who the nominee is may be a moot point by then. More after the jump.
Currently, DEMConventionWatch 2008 shows Sen. Obama needing 138 more delegates to pass the 2025 threshold and secure the nomination. The 2025 number needed to win is, however, based on none of the delegates from Michigan and Florida being seated. I must note that Sen. Obama's campaign claims they only need 132.5 more delegates to get to 2025, but I'm basing my numbers on DemConventionWatch.
Before May 31st two states will hold primaries: Oregon (with 52 delegates) and Kentucky (with 51 delegates). I'm assuming that Sen. Obama gains 33 delegates out of Oregon (or roughly 63% of the vote, which is not unreasonable given the recent polls from the state) and give him 17 delegates from Kentucky (or roughly 33% of the vote, again not an unreasonable number). Subtracting that from 138 gives us Sen. Obama still needing 88 delegates to get to 2025.
Now from looking at the numbers over the past week and a half it looks like Sen. Obama is picking up on average 5 supers a day, multiplying that by 17 (the number of days between now and May 31st) gets us 85 more delegates, leaving Senator Obama just three short of having 2025 by May 31st. This is where the importance of the Edwards endorsement comes in. Currently there are 15 Edwards pledged delegates (I took out the one of his from New Hampshire who switched to Obama tonight and did not count the three he is expected, but currently does not have, from Iowa). If three or more of these 15 switch sides before May 31st there is a good chance Sen. Obama can declare himself the nominee BEFORE the DNC Rules Committee meets to decide what to do with Michigan and Florida.
This would be important for two reasons: (1) Psychologically, it would take the wind out of the Clinton supporters mantra that if only Michigan and Florida are seated she would be the nominee as before the question of those two states delegations are even decided the party would already have a nominee and (2) once that number is reached Sen. Obama will have an even stronger hand than he has now over how those state's delegations are handled.